Meta at 52W Low: Betting on Mark Zuckerberg

We study Meta’s advertising flywheel, AI upside, founder control and 2030 valuation—plus the risks that can make or break the investment case.

Thank you all for coming over to DoitDuit 24th Community Meetup, it is always great to see all of you face to face!

We conducted a live stock analysis with a case study on Meta, the company behind:

  • Facebook;

  • Instagram;

  • Whatsapp; and

  • Threads.

Paid subscribers can watch the recording of the session and get the slides shared that day.

Mark Zuckerberg: From Facebook to Meta

It’s very important to understand Mark Zuckerberg (Meta’s founder) when you study Meta, because even though he only owns 13% of Meta’s shareholding, his voting power is 61%. This means he can control the direction of this trillion dollar business wherever he wants.

Some of our observations:

  1. Zuck dont like the advertising business, he wants to be a platform and be in control: In 2009, when iPhone became the new interface to replace PC desktop, Facebook didnt immediately build a smartphone app because Zuck dont want to be under the control of iOS and Android. Not until 2012 when Facebook was going to IPO, that Facebook was forced to build their own mobile native app for advertising to sell their growth story. Even so, Facebook launched their own Facebook smartphone in 2013, but Zuck gave up after poor sales. Zuck’s mentality continues in his pursue over Facebook Payment, Metaverse, VR Headset, Smartglass and Personal SuperIntelligence, all of these investments are burning cash with no clear return to shareholders.

  2. Zuck will copy if he cant acquire: Zuck only build Facebook. Instagram and Whatsapp are acquired. Threads, Stories and Reels are copied from their biggest competitor. Normally Western business are ashamed for copying others, Zuck constantly copy, and this is good for shareholders.

  3. Zuck takes action when opportunities arise: In 2023, when Elon Musk acquired Twitter and made huge changes to Twitter, many users were exiting Twitter. Zuck immediately launched Threads globally, connecting Instagram for Threads login. Now Threads has >500 mil users, beating Twitter. In 2020, when India banned Tiktok and US was considering to ban Tiktok, Zuck again launched Reels as an alternative to capture the demand for short video.

Understanding all the above is very important if you plan to become a long term Meta shareholder.

Meta’s Competitive Advantage

Generally, there are 6 types of competitive advantage for a business:

  • Branding;

  • Regulatory;

  • Switching Cost;

  • Cost Advantage;

  • Network effect; and

  • Distribution.

Meta has 2 main competitive advantages that are durable, leading to 2 supplementary competitive advantages:

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