Further thoughts on Q426 and beyond

We shared about Pinduoduo stock and valuation analysis in the community meetup last Saturday. It’s always nice to see all of you face to face. October will be another busy month:

• 5 Oct 2026 (11am): Site Visit to OCK @ Glenmarie (RSVP here: https://forms.gle/ZEPucYGsq7ocdnfi6)

• 17 Oct 2026 (2pm): Book Talk with Thomas Chua, Author of Lunch Break Investor (Kinokuniya Bukit Jalil)

• X Oct 2026: Site Visit to Oriental Kopi (date to be confirmed)

We received many questions about AI and Pinduoduo, after the session and also in groupchat. In this article, we will share our current/further thoughts on AI and e-commerce.

Before that, let’s recap one of the most interesting chart that we have seen recently (shared during community meetup). The chart above shows the similarity of the price movement for NASDAQ100 during the Dotcom Bubble vs the AI Boom now. The pink area behind is the interest rate during the Dotcom Bubble, while the grey area is the interest rate during this AI boom.

The share price movement has been largely similar thus far. On top of that, the boom in both eras have led to the buildout of physical infrastructure to support the “new economy”:

• Dotcom Bubble incentivise the buildout for fiber cable; vs

• AI Boom incentivise the buildout for compute & data centers.

The US treasury yield has crossed 5% threshold for 5-years, 10-years and 30-years. 5% has always been the “opportunity cost / hurdle rate” threshold for most investors, because the higher the risk free rate, the higher equities return need to be, for investors to be compensated for taking more risk.

That’s why the market should become very volatile, with very high probability of 20% movement in the index in the near future. We should all be prepared for it, mentally and wallet-wise.

With that aside, let’s go into AI and e-commerce.

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